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What is Saddam's counterattack strategy?


For the US-led forces, the war has been a fast, devastatingly effective campaign. But one conundrum remains -- what was Saddam's battle strategy?

This was not, in the traditional sense, a war between rival armies. Saddam's military, weakened by years of international sanctions and exposed to devastating air strikes, was no match for the much smaller, but far superior, US forces.

Jia Qingguo, Peking University: He (Saddam) has no chance to win. It's not a fair fight. It's a very asymmetrical fight.

But Saddam and his aides have never stopped assuring the world of their ability to crush their enemies. From hours before the first salvo of America's air strikes to the moment when American military machines marched into Baghdad, the Iraqis have sounded supremely confident.

Saddam's strategy, at least in the first few days of the war, seemed to revolve around creating a quagmire for the invading allies.

His men did no significant military damage to the coalition forces but they caused Washington and London considerable embarrassment simply by staying in the ring.

Fang Lin, military analyst: The US military did not achieve its initial goal that once the air strikes began a large number of Iraqi troops would surrender. That's because the Iraqi military was divided into small units and American air assaults failed to destroy them effectively.

Saddam's strategy seemed to lie with his resolve to win battles in the psychological war and with the lowest of low-tech resistance -- suicide-bombers, fighters in civilian clothes plus a truly remarkable television show.

Saddam's tactics caused the US some days' delay.

In fact if things had gone as Saddam and his inner circle hoped, Iraqi defenders could have taken advantages of Baghdad's close quarters to negate Americans' technological superiority and inflict mounting casualties on enemy troops in street-to-street fighting.

But, there was no re-run of the Battle for Stalingrad. Saddam Hussein's forces simply melted away.

Yin Gang, Middle East analyst: Apparently, Saddam anticipated his Central Command would be first targeted by American air strikes. So he prepared for war by dividing the country into four military regions, which could prove a wise strategy. But he failed to score a crucial victory on the human factor, that is, to win the morale of his troops and Iraqi citizens. That's why Baghdad fell so fast.

"The art of war is of vital importance to a state. It is a matter of life and death, a road to safety or to ruin." That quote is from one of the most famous of all Chinese texts, The Art of War, written 25 centuries ago by Sun Tze.

According to the Chinese war strategist, “When the people are in complete accord with their ruler ... they will follow him regardless of their lives, undismayed by any danger.”

There is no evidence that the US and British military have killed or captured Saddam. It is quite possible then that the followers of the Iraqi leader who ruled the country for three decades will continue their fight against the invaders, and perhaps indefinitely.

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